Market Outlook: US election, PMI, FII data key factors for next week

BILKULONLINE
SUNDAY Special

 New Delhi, Nov 3 : The market outlook for next week will be guided by US Presidential Election results, US Fed Interest Rate Decision, FII activities and major macro-economic data such as Indian and US PMI data, according to experts.

Last week, markets closed with a modest gain as strong performance by PSU banks in Q2 and a slump in oil prices in expectation of ease in retaliations in the Middle East aided investor sentiment. Nifty was up 123 points or 0.51 per cent at 24,304 and Sensex was at 79,724, up 321 points or 0.41 per cent.

During the period, sectoral rotation was evident as the previously strongest IT index fell by about 4 per cent, while the lagging Bank Nifty index gained roughly 1.75 per cent. The reason for the rise in the stock market last week is the good results presented by companies like ICICI Bank, Federal Bank and L&T. Apart from this, the market has also got support from strong domestic economic data.

India’s fiscal deficit in the April-September period of the current financial year stood at Rs 4.75 lakh crore. It is 29.4 per cent of the target for the financial year 2024-25. Last year, this figure was Rs 7.02 lakh crore. FIIs continued their selling spree, offloading around Rs 14,000 crore last week, marking October as a record month for Foreign Institutional Investors’ (FIIs) outflows in the secondary market, totalling Rs 1.2 lakh crore. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) countered this selling pressure by purchasing approximately Rs 1.07 lakh crore. Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart said, “Nifty is struggling to hold above the 24,500 level, with immediate support at the 24,000–23,900 range.

A breach below this could lead to a test of the 200-DMA at around 23,500. Above 24,500, resistance looms at the 24,650 clusters of the 200 and 100-DMAs, which could trigger a short-covering rally if surpassed.” Palka Arora Chopra, Director of Master Capital Services said that Bank Nifty displayed strength this week, closing with a 1.75 per cent gain and finding support near the 51,000 level.

A breakdown below this support could increase selling pressure, potentially pulling the index down toward 50,500. On the upside, buying interest is likely to emerge only above the 51800 level which may take the index towards 52,300 levels. Until then, the market may remain range-bound between 51,000 and 52,300.