How are US polls conducted? Will Trump win again or will Harris script history?

BILKULONLINE

By Akshit Baru & Zeeshan Ali

Ahmedabad, Nov 6: How are US polls conducted? Will Trump win again or will Harris script history?

The 2024 US presidential elections have emerged as a fierce contest between current Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

This election has seen a significant voter turnout and engagement, marked by intense events like voting issues, assassination attempts, and legal challenges. If she wins, Harris will not only become the first South Asian and first woman to hold the presidency but will also represent a historic milestone for representation. Conversely, a Trump win would make him the first President since Barack Obama to be re-elected after losing an election and the first Republican to achieve this since George W. Bush in 2004.

The US electoral system, developed over centuries, is recognised as one of the most robust in modern democracies. Initially, the election process was direct, allowing citizens to vote directly for their President. However, the Electoral College was introduced in 1804, creating an indirect election process. Each state is allocated a certain number of electoral votes, totalling 538 nationwide. The candidate who wins the majority of votes in a state secures all of that state’s electoral votes, allowing for the possibility of winning the presidency without securing the nationwide popular vote. The US operates under a two-party system dominated by the Democratic Party (centre-left) and the Republican Party (centre-right), contrasting with India’s multi-party framework. Each party’s presidential candidate must win internal elections, with the Democratic Party often seen as representing Black and minority interests, while the Republican Party is viewed as the party of White voters.

To win the presidency, a candidate must obtain at least 270 electoral votes. If no candidate achieves this majority, the House of Representatives elects the President, while the Senate chooses the Vice President. This structure highlights a key difference from India, where the Prime Minister is chosen by Parliament, reflecting a closer relationship between the executive and legislative branches. Key policy issues in this election included trade, technology regulation, taxation, abortion, immigration, climate policy, and foreign relations. The next President will need to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape characterised by criticism over responses to conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, the rise of the Taliban after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and challenges posed by China.

Recent Pew Research indicated that 80 per cent of voters consider the economy a crucial factor in their voting decisions. Immigration, violent crime, and abortion were prominent voter concerns. A recent EY study found that 61 per cent of voters prioritised immigration, an increase from previous elections, with 82 per cent of Republicans emphasising its importance compared to only 39 per cent of Democrats. During the campaigning, Harris aimed to enhance border security and address transnational crime, while Trump pledged to increase deportations and bolster military presence at the border. Abortion remained a contentious issue following the Supreme Court’s overturning of the landmark Roe v. Wade decision in 2022.

Harris supported access to abortion, aligning with the Democratic platform, while Trump and the Republicans advocated for significant restrictions. Additionally, climate change was a critical issue, with Harris promoting environmental justice and supporting the Inflation Reduction Act, which aimed to reduce emissions. Trump, in contrast, advocated for increased fossil fuel production. Foreign policy positions also likely influenced voter perceptions. Trump’s “America First” approach focusses on isolationism and reducing international commitments, including potential cuts to aid for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Harris supports a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict and has called for a ceasefire in Gaza, advocating for a balanced approach to relations with China.

The 2024 election outcomes will potentially reshape the political landscape for the decade ahead and impact global geopolitical dynamics. The stakes are high, and the outcome will have lasting implications for the US and its role in the world. With the candidates’ contrasting approaches to issues like economic stability, immigration policy, and climate action, the election outcome may reflect broader societal values and priorities. The world watches closely, knowing that the decisions made in this election could reverberate well beyond US borders, influencing global relations and domestic policies for years to come.

(Akshit Baru is a former student of Delhi University and Zeeshan Ali is a second-year postgraduate student of International Relations and Area Studies at Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi.)